Geostrategic Risk Model · Monte Carlo × Decision Trellis

Israel–Türkiye — Conflict Probability Simulator

A forward model of the Israel–Türkiye relationship over 2026–2032. It walks ~10,000 simulated futures year by year across documented escalation and de-escalation pathways — weighing a managed rivalry that holds against a slide into direct war. The system starts in Managed Rivalry, the open-source mid-2026 baseline. Analytical, not a forecast.
Parties: Israel · Türkiye Primary theater: Syria · E. Mediterranean Horizon: 2026–2032 · annual steps Anchor: open-source consensus + market priors
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Decision Trellis — flow of 10,000 futures
Détente → Normalization Managed Rivalry → Cold Peace Confrontation → Frozen Confrontation Escalation → War
Outcome distribution · by 2032
Sensitivity — what moves war risk
Δ in P(War by 2032) when each variable is pushed one notch toward danger, holding all else fixed.