Geostrategic Viability Model · Monte Carlo × Decision Trellis
The Islamabad MOU — 60-Day Viability Simulator
Iran–US memorandum of understanding, mediated by Pakistan. Fourteen points, a hard 60-day clock, asymmetric front-loaded obligations, and no binding instrument until the final Deal. This model walks ~10,000 simulated futures through the agreement's own sequence to weigh durable peace against a return to war.
Parties: Iran · USAWitness: Pakistan (¶12)Clock: 60 days, extendable by consent (¶3)Lock-in: binding UNSC resolution (¶14)
Decision Trellis — flow of 10,000 futures
Walk mode — tap a state node in the next phase to advance your scenario.
Sensitivity — what moves war risk
Δ in P(Return to War) when each variable is pushed one notch toward danger, holding all else fixed.
Reading the model. Bands are momentum states the deal occupies each phase; war drains off as an absorbing state. The ¶13 gate at Day 30 tests whether the five confidence-building measures (¶¶1,4,5,10,11) have begun — talks only open if they have. Edge thickness is the share of simulated futures taking that route.Caveat. This is an analytical simulator, not a forecast. Probabilities are illustrative functions of the dials you set — they encode structure (sequencing, cliffs, deferred issues, exogenous spoilers), not classified inputs. Israel and Hezbollah are non-signatories: they appear only through ¶1's Lebanon clause, yet can break the deal without either party defecting.
© 2026
Dr. Mosab Hawarey ·
@DrHawarey
Free to use, share, and adapt with permission, provided this work is properly cited and attributed to Dr. Mosab Hawarey.
Methodology Note (PDF)